Tag Archives: betting lines

NFL coaches fourth down statistics

Charts: Just How Wimpy Are NFL Coaches On Fourth Down Calls?

Charts: Just How Wimpy Are NFL Coaches On Fourth Down Calls?12SEXPAND

Over at The New York Times, Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats and Kevin Quealy of NYT Graphics have joined forces to create the excellent NYT 4th Down Bot.

The Bot uses game data going back to 2000 to tell you whether you should punt, kick a field goal, or go for it on fourth down, based on your position on the field and the yards to first down. For most of the game (the first three quarters or so), its suggestions are based on maximizing points, but with around 10 minutes remaining in the fourth, it switches over to maximize winning percentage. The charts themselves are interactive and the article has a great explanation of Burke’s “expected points” formula, so you should go check it out.

The image above maps out the 4th Down Bot’s recommendations, comparing them to the extremely timid play-calling of actual NFL coaches since 2002. The Times’s model recommends going for it on fourth and short from anywhere on the field—even inside your own 10—while NFL coaches almost always punt from their half of the field, and generally settle for the field goal near the endzone. At the “sweet spot” between your opponent’s 35 and 45 yard line—where field goals are long and punts aren’t worth much—the Bot says you should go for it with as many as ten yards to go, because this Bot does not fuck around.

There’s no mention of Riverboat Ron, though, whose Panthers are eight-for-eight on fourth down during their eight game win streak, with six of the seven drives resulting in touchdowns. Over on Twitter Football Outsider’s Aaron Schatz takes some issue with the Bot, echoing a sentiment that we’ve expressed on Regressing before.

[NY Times]

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NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14

Here is your early betting info for Week 14 NFL; we’ll update on Thursday with money lines and spread movements for these these games, and add info for Browns-Patriots, Falcons-Packers, Seahawks-49ers, and Cowboys-Bears, whose lines are yet to open at several books.

Spread, bet trend, and ATS performance is from SportsInsights.com (as of 5:11 p.m.), over/under is from VegasInsider.com (as of 5:33 p.m.). As always, leave any suggestions for how to improve these in the comments or shoot us an email at kyle@deadspin.com orreuben@deadspin.com.

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13

Here is your betting info for Week 13 NFL; we’ll just be doing this one post this Thanksgiving week, but feel free to check our source sites if you’re looking for a Friday or Saturday update.

Spread, bet trend, and ATS performance is from SportsInsights.com (as of 4:10 p.m), over/under is from VegasInsider.com (as of 4:42 p.m.) As always, leave any suggestions for how to improve these in the comments or shoot us an email at kyle@deadspin.com orreuben@deadspin.com.

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12

Below is updated betting information for the Week 12 NFL games (you can see the early-week edition here). Spread movement and money lines are now included for each game.

Spreads, ATS performance, and bet trend data are from SportsInsights.com (as of 4:13 p.m.); over/under, over/under performance, and money lines are from VegasInsider.com. If there’s any more information you’d like to see in these charts, shoot me an email atreuben@deadspin.com.

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)