Tag Archives: National Football League

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team’s Offense Come From?

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

There are just four more weeks in the NFL season, so let’s take a look in on how the offenses in the league are doing, and which positions have been most productive for them.

How These Work

These charts are an update to the ones we did at the quarter and halfway points of the year. As usual, we’re using Football Outsiders data to put these visualizations together. Each circle in these charts represents how productive that position has been for a given team. We added up every qualifying player’s DYAR (explained below) at a given position—so you’re not just looking at single players, but whole units. (Calvin Johnson finally took over as the best receiver in the league, but the Denver group is a better unit.) Bigger circles mean more production relative to the league average. Red circles mean below replacement level play. So, a big red circle means that that position really sucks.

If you’re unfamiliar, DYAR stands for Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. It’s a Football Outsiders metric that compiles the total value a player generates over the course of a year, and adjusts for the strength of opponents, instead of the slightly better known DVOA. (After week 10, the opponent adjustments are at full strength.) Broadly, we’re using DYAR because we wanted to show how much production each team has gotten from each of its positions, not how well each player has played in whatever snaps he was on the field for. (DVOA is a rate stat, like the NBA’s PER, meaning a highly productive five plays would set you ahead of league leaders. We aren’t so interested in that here.)

A few takeaways:

  • The Patriots offense is finally coming around, with all its positions out of the negative, and all but wide receivers above league average.
  • It is very hard to have amass a lot of negative DYAR as a wide receiver—much harder than as a QB or running back, so the Cleveland combination of Davone Bess and Greg Little both going under -100 DYAR, and being the worst and second worst in the league, is quite the accomplishment.
  • While it isn’t quite as funny to have a “worst possible squad” made up entire of Jaguars units, it’s refreshing to see a few other groups sneak into the mix.
  • Nick Foles, DeSean Jackson, and the rest of the Eagles have been on a tear since we did this at the halfway point, which is obvious enough, but it’s come without slowing down LeSean’s production. The Eagles are scary.
  • Andrew Luck’s 411 DYAR puts him 15th among quarterbacks, but more than a third of that is from his rushing. He has 143 DYAR as a rusher, which puts him first among all QBs for rushing (Michael Vick is still #2).

Average NFL Team:

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

Best Squads:

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

Worst Squads:

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

1. Denver Broncos: +32.6% DVOA (Ranked 1 after Week 8)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

2. San Diego Chargers: +22.0% DVOA (Prev. 3)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

3. Philadelphia: +18.2% DVOA (Prev. 13)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

4. New Orleans Saints: +16.5% DVOA (Prev. 4)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

5. Seattle Seahawks: +13.3% DVOA (Prev. 14)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

6. New England Patriots: +11.8% DVOA (Prev. 20)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

7. Green Bay Packers: +11.7% DVOA (Prev. 2)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

8. Carolina Panthers: +11.4% DVOA (Prev. 9)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

9. Chicago Bears: +11.0% DVOA (Prev. 7)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

10. Dallas Cowboys: +7.9% DVOA (Prev. 12)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

11. Atlanta Falcons: +6.0% DVOA (Prev. 10)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

12. Pittsburgh Steelers: +5.7% DVOA (Prev. 17)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

13. Detroit Lions: +5.4% DVOA (Prev. 8)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

14. San Francisco 49ers: +5.1% DVOA (Prev. 6)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

15. Indianapolis Colts: +3.8% DVOA (Prev. 5)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

16. Kansas City Chiefs: -0.3% DVOA (Prev. 16)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

17. Miami Dolphins: -0.7% DVOA (Prev. 19)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

18. Tennessee Titans: -2.3% DVOA (Prev. 18)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

19. Washington Redskins: -3.0% DVOA (Prev. 15)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

20. St. Louis Rams: -4.3% DVOA (Prev. 24)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

21. Cincinnati Bengals: -5.1% DVOA (Prev. 11)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -6.6% DVOA (Prev. 30)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

23. Minnesota Vikings: -7.1% DVOA (Prev. 22)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

24. Arizona Cardinals: -7.2% DVOA (Prev. 26)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

25. Buffalo Bills: -8.2% DVOA (Prev. 21)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

26. Houston Texans: -12.3% DVOA (Prev. 29)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

27. New York Giants: -12.9% DVOA (Prev. 27)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

28. Cleveland Browns: -17.7% DVOA (Prev. 23)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

29. Oakland Raiders: -18.4% DVOA (Prev. 28)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

30. Baltimore Ravens: -20.7% DVOA (Prev. 25)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

31. New York Jets: -27.2% DVOA (Prev. 31)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

32. Jacksonville Jaguars: -36.1% DVOA (Prev. 32)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

 

 

NFL coaches fourth down statistics

Charts: Just How Wimpy Are NFL Coaches On Fourth Down Calls?

Charts: Just How Wimpy Are NFL Coaches On Fourth Down Calls?12SEXPAND

Over at The New York Times, Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats and Kevin Quealy of NYT Graphics have joined forces to create the excellent NYT 4th Down Bot.

The Bot uses game data going back to 2000 to tell you whether you should punt, kick a field goal, or go for it on fourth down, based on your position on the field and the yards to first down. For most of the game (the first three quarters or so), its suggestions are based on maximizing points, but with around 10 minutes remaining in the fourth, it switches over to maximize winning percentage. The charts themselves are interactive and the article has a great explanation of Burke’s “expected points” formula, so you should go check it out.

The image above maps out the 4th Down Bot’s recommendations, comparing them to the extremely timid play-calling of actual NFL coaches since 2002. The Times’s model recommends going for it on fourth and short from anywhere on the field—even inside your own 10—while NFL coaches almost always punt from their half of the field, and generally settle for the field goal near the endzone. At the “sweet spot” between your opponent’s 35 and 45 yard line—where field goals are long and punts aren’t worth much—the Bot says you should go for it with as many as ten yards to go, because this Bot does not fuck around.

There’s no mention of Riverboat Ron, though, whose Panthers are eight-for-eight on fourth down during their eight game win streak, with six of the seven drives resulting in touchdowns. Over on Twitter Football Outsider’s Aaron Schatz takes some issue with the Bot, echoing a sentiment that we’ve expressed on Regressing before.

[NY Times]

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14

Here is your early betting info for Week 14 NFL; we’ll update on Thursday with money lines and spread movements for these these games, and add info for Browns-Patriots, Falcons-Packers, Seahawks-49ers, and Cowboys-Bears, whose lines are yet to open at several books.

Spread, bet trend, and ATS performance is from SportsInsights.com (as of 5:11 p.m.), over/under is from VegasInsider.com (as of 5:33 p.m.). As always, leave any suggestions for how to improve these in the comments or shoot us an email at kyle@deadspin.com orreuben@deadspin.com.

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)