Category Archives: NFL

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team’s Offense Come From?

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

There are just four more weeks in the NFL season, so let’s take a look in on how the offenses in the league are doing, and which positions have been most productive for them.

How These Work

These charts are an update to the ones we did at the quarter and halfway points of the year. As usual, we’re using Football Outsiders data to put these visualizations together. Each circle in these charts represents how productive that position has been for a given team. We added up every qualifying player’s DYAR (explained below) at a given position—so you’re not just looking at single players, but whole units. (Calvin Johnson finally took over as the best receiver in the league, but the Denver group is a better unit.) Bigger circles mean more production relative to the league average. Red circles mean below replacement level play. So, a big red circle means that that position really sucks.

If you’re unfamiliar, DYAR stands for Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement. It’s a Football Outsiders metric that compiles the total value a player generates over the course of a year, and adjusts for the strength of opponents, instead of the slightly better known DVOA. (After week 10, the opponent adjustments are at full strength.) Broadly, we’re using DYAR because we wanted to show how much production each team has gotten from each of its positions, not how well each player has played in whatever snaps he was on the field for. (DVOA is a rate stat, like the NBA’s PER, meaning a highly productive five plays would set you ahead of league leaders. We aren’t so interested in that here.)

A few takeaways:

  • The Patriots offense is finally coming around, with all its positions out of the negative, and all but wide receivers above league average.
  • It is very hard to have amass a lot of negative DYAR as a wide receiver—much harder than as a QB or running back, so the Cleveland combination of Davone Bess and Greg Little both going under -100 DYAR, and being the worst and second worst in the league, is quite the accomplishment.
  • While it isn’t quite as funny to have a “worst possible squad” made up entire of Jaguars units, it’s refreshing to see a few other groups sneak into the mix.
  • Nick Foles, DeSean Jackson, and the rest of the Eagles have been on a tear since we did this at the halfway point, which is obvious enough, but it’s come without slowing down LeSean’s production. The Eagles are scary.
  • Andrew Luck’s 411 DYAR puts him 15th among quarterbacks, but more than a third of that is from his rushing. He has 143 DYAR as a rusher, which puts him first among all QBs for rushing (Michael Vick is still #2).

Average NFL Team:

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

Best Squads:

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

Worst Squads:

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

1. Denver Broncos: +32.6% DVOA (Ranked 1 after Week 8)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

2. San Diego Chargers: +22.0% DVOA (Prev. 3)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

3. Philadelphia: +18.2% DVOA (Prev. 13)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

4. New Orleans Saints: +16.5% DVOA (Prev. 4)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

5. Seattle Seahawks: +13.3% DVOA (Prev. 14)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

6. New England Patriots: +11.8% DVOA (Prev. 20)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

7. Green Bay Packers: +11.7% DVOA (Prev. 2)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

8. Carolina Panthers: +11.4% DVOA (Prev. 9)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

9. Chicago Bears: +11.0% DVOA (Prev. 7)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

10. Dallas Cowboys: +7.9% DVOA (Prev. 12)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

11. Atlanta Falcons: +6.0% DVOA (Prev. 10)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

12. Pittsburgh Steelers: +5.7% DVOA (Prev. 17)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

13. Detroit Lions: +5.4% DVOA (Prev. 8)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

14. San Francisco 49ers: +5.1% DVOA (Prev. 6)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

15. Indianapolis Colts: +3.8% DVOA (Prev. 5)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

16. Kansas City Chiefs: -0.3% DVOA (Prev. 16)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

17. Miami Dolphins: -0.7% DVOA (Prev. 19)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

18. Tennessee Titans: -2.3% DVOA (Prev. 18)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

19. Washington Redskins: -3.0% DVOA (Prev. 15)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

20. St. Louis Rams: -4.3% DVOA (Prev. 24)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

21. Cincinnati Bengals: -5.1% DVOA (Prev. 11)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

22. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: -6.6% DVOA (Prev. 30)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

23. Minnesota Vikings: -7.1% DVOA (Prev. 22)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

24. Arizona Cardinals: -7.2% DVOA (Prev. 26)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)D

25. Buffalo Bills: -8.2% DVOA (Prev. 21)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

26. Houston Texans: -12.3% DVOA (Prev. 29)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

27. New York Giants: -12.9% DVOA (Prev. 27)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

28. Cleveland Browns: -17.7% DVOA (Prev. 23)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

29. Oakland Raiders: -18.4% DVOA (Prev. 28)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

30. Baltimore Ravens: -20.7% DVOA (Prev. 25)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

31. New York Jets: -27.2% DVOA (Prev. 31)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

32. Jacksonville Jaguars: -36.1% DVOA (Prev. 32)

Infographics: Where Does Your NFL Team's Offense Come From? (Week 14)

 

 

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NFL coaches fourth down statistics

Charts: Just How Wimpy Are NFL Coaches On Fourth Down Calls?

Charts: Just How Wimpy Are NFL Coaches On Fourth Down Calls?12SEXPAND

Over at The New York Times, Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats and Kevin Quealy of NYT Graphics have joined forces to create the excellent NYT 4th Down Bot.

The Bot uses game data going back to 2000 to tell you whether you should punt, kick a field goal, or go for it on fourth down, based on your position on the field and the yards to first down. For most of the game (the first three quarters or so), its suggestions are based on maximizing points, but with around 10 minutes remaining in the fourth, it switches over to maximize winning percentage. The charts themselves are interactive and the article has a great explanation of Burke’s “expected points” formula, so you should go check it out.

The image above maps out the 4th Down Bot’s recommendations, comparing them to the extremely timid play-calling of actual NFL coaches since 2002. The Times’s model recommends going for it on fourth and short from anywhere on the field—even inside your own 10—while NFL coaches almost always punt from their half of the field, and generally settle for the field goal near the endzone. At the “sweet spot” between your opponent’s 35 and 45 yard line—where field goals are long and punts aren’t worth much—the Bot says you should go for it with as many as ten yards to go, because this Bot does not fuck around.

There’s no mention of Riverboat Ron, though, whose Panthers are eight-for-eight on fourth down during their eight game win streak, with six of the seven drives resulting in touchdowns. Over on Twitter Football Outsider’s Aaron Schatz takes some issue with the Bot, echoing a sentiment that we’ve expressed on Regressing before.

[NY Times]

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14

Here is your early betting info for Week 14 NFL; we’ll update on Thursday with money lines and spread movements for these these games, and add info for Browns-Patriots, Falcons-Packers, Seahawks-49ers, and Cowboys-Bears, whose lines are yet to open at several books.

Spread, bet trend, and ATS performance is from SportsInsights.com (as of 5:11 p.m.), over/under is from VegasInsider.com (as of 5:33 p.m.). As always, leave any suggestions for how to improve these in the comments or shoot us an email at kyle@deadspin.com orreuben@deadspin.com.

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 14 (Early Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13

Here is your betting info for Week 13 NFL; we’ll just be doing this one post this Thanksgiving week, but feel free to check our source sites if you’re looking for a Friday or Saturday update.

Spread, bet trend, and ATS performance is from SportsInsights.com (as of 4:10 p.m), over/under is from VegasInsider.com (as of 4:42 p.m.) As always, leave any suggestions for how to improve these in the comments or shoot us an email at kyle@deadspin.com orreuben@deadspin.com.

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 13

Grantland Channel: The Coach Who Never Punts

You might not know Kevin Kelley’s name, but you know who Kevin Kelley is. You’ve read about him in Sports IllustratedThe New Yorker, the New York Times, and on ESPN. If Grantland had existed in 2005 — when Kelley first implemented his bold new strategy at Pulaski Academy in Little Rock, Arkansas — we undoubtedly would have toasted his budding cult celebrity status in our “Who’s That Guy?” annals.

Kelley is the coach who never punts and almost always onside kicks. And while he hasn’t converted his high school success into a college gig like fellow prep sensations Gus Malzahn and Hugh Freeze, Kelley has managed something arguably more revolutionary: He’s caused us to question the way the game is played.

The numbers support Kelley’s football philosophy, but even if you’re not a stathead, you’ll probably watch our Grantland Channel video and think, Why isn’t my team doing that?The numbers Kelley cites are that eye-popping. And he isn’t cooking the books: Cal professor David Romer concluded that teams should not punt when facing fourth-and-4 or less; NFL stats analyst Brian Burke has detailed the need to rethink fourth-down decision-making; Football Outsiders has conflated punts with turnovers. You’ve even read about it on this site. Most fans and analysts who are willing to accept that change is a fundamental part of life have embraced the idea that automatically punting on fourth down doesn’t make sense.

So why do teams at all levels remain so rote? Chris Kluwe may have turned the Internet into his personal pulpit, but he can’t be that persuasive. Romer got it right way back in 2005: Coaches are afraid. No one wants to be the guy who gets fired because he stopped punting. And the same fans and analysts who clamor for innovation are actually fueling that fear. The mob nearly tarred and feathered Falcons coach Mike Smith when he went for it on fourth-and-inches in overtime against the Saints in 2011. Bill Belichick almost lost his hoodie-wearing privileges after going for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28 against the Colts in 2009. San Diego State coach Rocky Long announced before the 2012 season that he might stop punting, then had to field so many questions about it on a weekly basis that he began refusing to discuss his fourth-down plays with the media.

Kelley has turned his approach into state-championship winning success because he understands that never punting and almost always onside kicking works best in high school when a team never punts and almost always onside kicks. It’s not a sometime strategy. The percentages would dictate more nuanced tactics at the higher levels, but the larger point holds: We can’t expect college and NFL coaches to adopt this approach consistently if they’re lambasted whenever they give it a go.

Think about this: No. 5 Baylor is averaging 8.6 yards per play. The Bears are undefeated and in the thick of the national championship race. They don’t need to stop punting, but can you imagine if they did? Conversely, can you imagine if Art Briles had been 0-for-3 on his fourth-down attempts against no. 10 Oklahoma last week instead of 2-for-3? The results dictate the level of admiration or outrage.

Statisticians say teams shouldn’t automatically punt. Fans say they want to see a more exciting game. Recruits would surely love to play for a school pitching endless high-pressure offensive and defensive situations.

But maybe we’re not ready for what we think we want.

—Mallory Rubin

Related: Ed Feng on Why NFL Teams Should Stop Running the Football

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9970245/grantland-channel-coach-never-punts

Why Baylor Is Porn For Football Nerds

​Why Baylor Is Porn For Football Nerds

In football, which operates on a tight cycle of coaching innovation and theft, it’s rare to see enormous outliers. The college game is littered with coaches who found one legitimate schematic advantage, rode it for a year or two, watched it become the norm, and fell back to the pack once they could no longer distinguish themselves. You can no longer count on one hand the number of teams that run an “Air Raid” scheme, or dabble in a no-huddle offense. The “packaged plays” innovation that Chip Kelly popularized is catching on in much the same way. Early adapters reap the spoils, but if they don’t continue to learn, they wind up more like ex-Michigan head coach Rich Rodriguez—yesterday’s innovator clinging to yesterday’s fashions.

Then there’s Baylor’s Art Briles, rolling into this weekend with an undefeated record at a perennial doormat, with an outside shot at a national championship should Florida State or Alabama slip up.

The difference between your run-of-the-mill wunderkind football coach—say, Texas Tech coach Kliff Kingsbury or Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris—and Briles is largely a matter of what we’ll call Football Things. Everyone involved in the sport in any way has to negotiate a certain amount of cognitive dissonance between long-held football shibboleths and the underlying truths of the game. The arguments can be simple: “Establishing the run is important if you want to win a football game.” (The truth is that teams run because they’re winning). Or complex: “Does the fact that this team with a terrible running game is good at play-action passes mean that the skill of the running game actually doesn’t matter?” (Inconclusive. Anecdotally? No, it doesn’t matter. )

We all start from that shared collective knowledge of football and let that understanding infect the questions we ask. Because we have become so used to our surroundings, our eyes glaze over when we see a running back plowing ahead for four yards on three carries while a team with a one-score lead tries to eat clock. That is a Football Thing. When a team faces a long third down and runs a screen that has little chance of gaining a first down without a catastrophic fuckup, that’s a Football Thing. When a team is driving late in the fourth quarter and elects to kick a field goal on fourth-and-short even though the conversion would practically end the game, that’s a Football Thing. Football Things aren’t necessarily glaringly flawed ideas in terms of short-term payoffs, but if you add them up over time, the numbers aren’t in their favor.

But most coaches are a product of Football Things. And no matter how many innovative schemes or neat plays they draw up, they remain that way.

Art Briles’s success is based in part on a large inheritance—he didn’t invent every concept he’s using, though what coach ever did?—but the chief reason behind it is his willingness to push the successful trends of the day to their logical extremes, to take chances well outside the scope of accepted football protocol. To put it simply: He doesn’t believe in Football Things.


Baylor’s offense, by any objective measure, is ridiculous. Last week the Bears were without three of their top weapons, receiver Tevin Reese and running backs Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, so they tapped the breaks in scoring only 63 points against Texas Tech at a neutral site. Football Outsiders’ Fremeau Efficiency Ratings carries both opponent-adjusted and raw measures of offensive efficiency. Baylor has not played a tough schedule, so it’s only sixth in opponent-adjusted efficiency. (All these numbers are through games of Nov. 16.) In raw efficiency? It’s in first place by over .200, or the same difference between seventh-place Alabama and 17th-place Washington. The Bears have converted a first down or touchdown on 85.4 percent of its drives, first in the country. They are first in Explosive Drives, which denotes the percentage of drives their offense had that averaged 10 or more yards per play. More than a third—36.5 percent—of all Baylor drives average 10 or more yards per play.

Where does all this stem from? Well, as Chris Brown noted in his recent brilliant-as-usual profile of Briles, it starts with philosophy.

“We do not try to go to the body to set up the knockout shot,” Briles said at a recent coaching clinic. “We try to score on every snap.”

Football Thing devotees will tell you that you’ve always got to mix in the long ball. You can’t make it the sole point of your offense. You certainly don’t want to always throw deep, because you’ll end up in a lot of third-and-longs, and you’ll be predictable. Bill Connelly has been fiddling with a statistic that measures how well individual receivers have performed. Baylor wideouts Antwan Goodley and Reese (since injured) shook out as the No. 1 and No. 2 threats in the country, as of the last update. The big reason? They were No. 2 and No. 3 in yards per target, behind only Texas A&M’s Mike Evans.

But notice that, unlike most aerial assaults of the past few decades, Baylor actually isn’t passing that much. As Matt Hinton pointed out on Monday, of the 10 all-time best offenses measured by yards per game—a list that the Bears top for now, by the way—Baylor easily has the most prolific rushing attack. Only four of those 10 offenses averaged more than 230 rushing yards per game. One is 2005 USC. The other three are 2011 Baylor, 2012 Baylor, and 2013 Baylor. The best chance to score may not be Goodley over the top against a given defense. It might be getting a matchup with Seastrunk or Shock Linwood against a safety, where one missed tackle sends them to the races.

There’s nothing exceedingly fancy about what the Bears’ offense is doing; they’re just combining all the latest concepts with the willingness to take calculated risks that go against the mainstream. They run packaged plays. They run no-huddle almost exclusively. They don’t care about time of possession. Baylor’s closest call all season, a 35-25 escape from Manhattan against Kansas State, involved the Wildcats running for 327 yards and chewing up nearly 40 minutes of clock. Didn’t matter. By no-huddling all the time, Baylor is showing supreme confidence in its offense. It won’t come through on every down, but Briles’s philosophy is about creating small advantages that he knows will assert themselves in the long run, the way the house knows the percentages are ultimately on its side. And, in Manhattan, that’s precisely what happened. Baylor scored two touchdowns in the fourth quarter to take the lead and salt the game away.


One of the major points of Brown’s piece is the wide splits the Baylor wide receivers take. Having your offense do this means you’re essentially trading out-breaking route concepts for geometry. As a result, defenses have a lot more ground to cover, and that extra ground means the safeties have to take wider splits, the cornerbacks are forced to the edges, and the middle of the field becomes much more important. This is a boon not only to the passing game, but to the running game. Here’s an example Matt Waldman used in his Futures piece on Seastrunk. This is from Baylor’s game against West Virginia earlier in the year.

Notice how the wide split of the receivers creates bad tackling and pursuit angles for defensive backs against Seastrunk. The linebackers become vitally important; miss a tackle, and Seastrunk has open space downfield and blockers to work with because no receiver has run his way out of the play. Once Seastrunk is past the line of scrimmage, nobody has a prayer. It’s not just that he’s a talented back—though of course he is; it’s that this particular set has a high potential to create a big play if he can make a tackler miss.

Nothing the Bears do is completely foreign to other offenses. The difference is the degree to which they do it. Other teams will run packaged plays in which the aim of some of the reads isn’t anything more ambitious than snagging four or five yards and setting up second-and-short. Baylor runs packaged plays in which the aim is deciding which one offers the highest chance of ending with a Bears player in the end zone.


My favorite Briles quote comes from his pre-season interview with Spencer Hall. Hall asks him where he starts working when he realizes he has fewer resources:

The mind. Without question. Everything’s about your mental attitude, and how you approach it, and how you get to where you wanna get. You have to understand that the field may not be equal from a lot of different standpoints — resources, facilities, support, fan support — but all those things, if you let them filter in, you lose sight of your focus. Our focus has always been that we’re gonna be the standard, we’re gonna do what we do and do it as well as anyone does it, and we’re not gonna have any excuses or comparisons along the way. That’s our motto: no excuses, no comparisons, and no compromises.

That is an intellectual quote from a man who will not be trapped by his circumstances, from someone who sees the field around him as it’s changing and tries to anticipate where things will go from there.

Baylor has produced Robert Griffin III, Kendall Wright, and Terrance Williams, among others, in recent drafts. The school isn’t bereft of talent, but it also isn’t a football factory. It’d be impossible to build a successful program there out of just one scheme or wrinkle. Briles is doing more than riding a gimmick. For Baylor to rise out of the Waco dirt, the very concept of football had to be carefully considered; it had to be stretched to its extremes.

If you’re an analytics nerd, this is especially satisfying to watch. You’re used to seeing unconventional ideas ignored or belittled at best condescended to in the mainstream. At Baylor, the idea has its day.

On Saturday, Baylor trounced another Air Raid offense, Texas Tech, and it was like looking at the same species in separate stages of its evolution, the Red Raiders (yesterday’s innovators) with their “traditional” spread and the Bears with their wiiiide splits. It’s the difference between a team that believes in an offense, and a team that believes in the idea behind the offense.

There’s real bliss in watching this unfold—in watching a thesis work its way to a conclusion. When you see a coach like Art Briles finding success at the limits of football, it validates a lot of the thinking that we have put in to trying to find the real “book” of the game, underneath all those Football Things. Briles isn’t a pure outsider by any stretch of the imagination—he climbed his way up from the Texas high school football ranks and has worked a long time to get to where he is today—nor is he a theoretician. He’s a guy laboring under externally imposed limitations that both require and allow him to experiment; what makes him unique is that he’s both brave enough to do so and smart enough to do it well.

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12

Below is updated betting information for the Week 12 NFL games (you can see the early-week edition here). Spread movement and money lines are now included for each game.

Spreads, ATS performance, and bet trend data are from SportsInsights.com (as of 4:13 p.m.); over/under, over/under performance, and money lines are from VegasInsider.com. If there’s any more information you’d like to see in these charts, shoot me an email atreuben@deadspin.com.

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)SEXPAND

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

NFL Betting Lines, Visualized: Week 12 (Late Edition)

Chart: Friendly Reminder, Don’t Bet On Favorites To Cover Huge Spreads

Chart: Friendly Reminder, Don't Bet On Favorites To Cover Huge SpreadsSEXPAND

If you happened to bet on the Broncos to cover last week, David Yanofsky over at Quartz has put together a great chart to show just how much of a dumbass move that was.

The graphic above shows the likehood of covering by point spread, with the circle size proportional to the number of games with that line from 2000-2012. Overall, favored teams covered the spread 47 percent of the time, and this figure is relatively flat through a 16 point spread. After that, the chance of covering drops off precipitously, and teams covered just 30 percent of the time.

Credit to America’s gambling public, though. Reports out Vegas make it sound like most people stayed away from the insane -28 point Broncos-Jags spread, although the money that did come in tilted towards Denver.

[Quartz]