Optimal 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet strategies in NLHE 6-max – Part 1

1.1 Presenting the problem

Against weak low limit opposition, we can get away with playing an almost completely value-based game. We 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet mainly for value, and it’s not a big mistake to assume our opponents are doing the same. If we reraise as a bluff, we usually limit ourselves to the occasional 3-bet bluff. A value-based style with little bluffing works well at small stakes because our opponents use more or less the same strategy, and many of them execute it poorly. Of course, every now and then we run into aggressive players who are capable of reraising as a bluff, but there are plenty of fish that will pay off our straightforward game, even if we bluff much less than is game theoretically optimal.

But let’s say our Hero has built a bankroll by patiently grinding the low limits, and now he wants to take a stab at $200NL. He will now experience a lot more 3-betting, especially if he’s out of position.

For example:

Example 1.1.1: We get 3-bet out of position

$200NL
6-handed

Hero ($200) raises to $7 with J T from UTG, it’s folded to the button ($200) who 3-bets to $24, the blinds fold, and Hero folds.

Straightforward, and although Hero expects to get bluffed some of the time, he really doesn’t have any choice but to fold. It’s correct that his hand can no longer be played for value, but as we shall see later, it’s possible to turn it into a 4-bet bluff.

At any rate, Hero plays on. The players behind him keep 3-betting him frequently when he is out of position, and Hero keeps folding weak hands to 3-bets. After a while, this hand occurs:

Example 1.1.2: We get 3-bet out of position (again)

$200NL
6-handed

Hero ($200) raises to $7 with A J in MP, it’s folded to button ($200) who 3-bets to $24, the blinds fold, and Hero folds.

This is getting frustrating. Hero has a decent hand, but it’s not strong enough to defend against a 3-bet from out of position, so Hero folds. But he is starting to feel exploited. If only he could get dealt a good hand and punish these bastards!

What an inexperienced player now might do (as his frustration builds up more and more), is to make up his mind to fight back against the loose 3-bettors. But he doesn’t quite know what to do, and therefore he will often use poor strategies, and the wrong types of hands!.

Let’s look at two common (and sub-optimal) ways to defend against 3-betting, out of position with 100 BB stacks:

Example 1.1.3: We get 3-bet out of position (again) and we call

$200NL
6-handed

Hero ($200) raises til $7 with K Q in MP, button ($200) 3-bets to $24. Hero thinks for a bit, decides that this hand is too good to fold, but too weak to 4-bet, so he calls.

Flop: 944 ($51)
Hero ($176) checks, button ($176) bets $30, Hero folds.

Hero is frustrated, but he doesn’t see what else he could have done out of position with a hand of this type. Too strong to fold (at least in Hero’s mind) against a loose 3-bettor, but not strong enough to 4-bet. Or? Hmmmmm …. Hero contemplates his next move, and soon another 3-bet pot occurs:

Example 1.1.4: We get 3-bet out of position (again) and we 4-bet for value (or at least that’s what we think we are doing)

$200NL
6-handed

Hero ($200) raises to $7 with A J from UTG, MP ($200) 3-bets to $24. Hero decides to fight fire with fire, and he 4-bets pot to $75. Button 5-bets all-in, Hero calls. MP has K K . Hero screams in agony.

Flop: Q T 7 ($403)

Turn: Q T 7 Q ($403)

River: Q T 7 Q 4 ($403)

Hero tears his clothing and sprinkles ashes over his head. Damn!!

What happened throughout this sequence of hands?
OK, I made up this story, but it illustrates several of the problems an ABC low limit player faces when he moves up to tougher games. He will get 3-bet left and right, so he will have to fold a lot out of position (which is correct). He realizes he has to fight back to avoid getting run over (also correct), but he’s not quite sure how to do it. So his attempts to counter the aggression are often poorly executed, frustrating and tilt-inducing.

For example, Hero might start calling 3-bets out of position with hands he feels are too good to fold, but not strong enough to 4-bet for value. This leads to many miserable experiences like Example 1.3. Or he might start 4-betting medium/weak hands without a clear understanding of whether he is doing it for value (planning to call a 5-bet), or if he is bluffing (planning to fold to a 5-bet).

What our inexperienced Hero might not realize, is that his opponents’ loose 3-betting doesn’t necessarily mean they are willing to splash around with lots of weak hands in 4-bet and 5-bet pots. When two good and aggressive NLHE-players engage in 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet warfare preflop, this is what usually happens:

Both players operate with wide ranges, and all ranges have a significant percentage of bluffs in them, especially at the early stage (raising and 3-betting)
Both players are willing to fold most of their bluffs (but not all of them), when their opponent reraises them back

This results in ranges that start loose, but get more and more (but never completely) weighted towards value. And it’s usually plain wrong to assume you can 4-bet a medium hand like AJs for value against a loose 3-bettor, and expect to be a favorite when he 5-bets all-in. Yes, AJs is a decent hand against the range that 3-bet you, but it’s crushed by the range that 5-bets you, and it’s your opponent who decides when the 5th bet goes in (and that rarely happens unless he has the goods).

Therefore, if you decide on a frustrated whim to “take a stand” against an aggressive and competent 3-bettor with a hand like AJs, you will discover that in some mysterious way he almost always manages to come up with a better hand when you get all-in preflop.

This has lead many an inexperienced NLHE player to lose his stack, since these players:

Don’t understand the roles different types of hands have in different types of ranges. First and foremost: Do I have a value hand that wants to get all-in, or do I have a bluff hand that I will fold to further aggression?
Aren’t willing to fold hands that are strong at the early stages, but turn into weak hands when Villain keeps reraising

Let’s look at Example 1.4 again. Hero open-raised AJs (correctly), and he got 3-bet. He then decided that his AJs was a good hand against Villain’s 3-bet range (debatable, but not a big mistake), so he 4-bet for value (wrong!), planning to call a 5-bet all-in. Playing AJs for value after a 3-bet and going all-in with it was a big mistake. The 4-bet in itself was not a big mistake, since Villain has a lot of bluffs in his 3-betting range, and he will fold most of them to a 4-bet. So it’s not a problem to 4-bet AJs as a bluff against a range full of 3-bet bluffs. But when Villain comes over the top with an all-in 5-bet, our AJs crumbles to dust (if Villain knows what he is doing).

But our inexperienced Hero did not realize what had just happened when he got 5-bet, and he stuck with his plan of playing AJs for value against what he perceived to be a wide and weak range. The problem is that the range he faces after a 5-bet from a competent player isn’t wide and weak, it’s very narrow and very strong.

Note what the real mistake was in this hand. 4-betting AJs against a wide range was not a big mistake in isolation, and neither was calling a 5-bet getting 2: 1. But the combination of 4-betting AJs + planning to always call a 5-bet, now that was a big mistake against a competent opponent. It caused Hero to invest his remaining 96.5bb stack as a huge underdog. The problem was, as mentioned previously, that his opponent controlled when the 5th bet went in, and Villain made sure he had a hand.

Our goal for this article is to give Hero a set of tools he can use to comfortably counter preflop aggression when he is sitting as the raiser out of position. We’ll base our work on Hero’s opening ranges, and based on these, we can deduce defensive strategies against positional 3-bets. And we will use game theory to design these strategies in such a way that the 3-bettor can not exploit Hero in these scenarios. Our work on Hero’s game theory optimal defensive strategies also gives us a set of optimal 3-betting strategies for his opponent, so we kill two birds with one stone.

We have here talked mostly about the ills of getting 3-bet when sitting out of position, and this is what I feel inexperienced players find hardest to deal with. But the mirror image of this scenario, with us being the 3-bettor in position, is also worth discussing. These are easier scenarios to play, but we will benefit a lot from understanding optimal 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet dynamics also from this perspective. We’ll learn how to construct optimal 3-betting ranges, based on the raiser’s opening range, and we’ll learn how to play against a 4-bet.

Regardless of whether we’re the raiser or the 3-bettor, we want to understand which hands we can (re)raise for value, and which hands we (re)raise as bluffs. And above all else, we want it to be 100% clear which of these two things we are doing before we engage in a 3-bet/4-bet/5-bet war preflop.

1.2 Our model and overall philosophy

In this article we’ll design so-called optimal strategy pairs for the raiser and the 3-bettor in the following scenario:

- The raiser opens some range
- A player behind him 3-bets
- The raiser 4-bets or folds
- The 3-bettor 5-bets, or folds to a 4-bet

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Time to say goodbye

The Last Game

Nolan Dalla and Peter Alson Excerpted from the book, ONE OF A KIND by Nolan Dalla and Peter Alson

On November 11, 1998, 45-year-old Stuey Ungar, five-foot-five and barely a hundred pounds, charged across the shining marble floor of the Bellagio’s grand entrance with a bounce to his step and a wad of cash in his pocket. It would have been a real stretch to call him The Kid at this point, though from a distance his Beatle haircut and boyish frame still gave the impression of youth. Up close, he looked like what he was; a longtime drug addict whose excesses were now written in his face. The ravaged nose was the most disturbing feature, one side of it deflated like a bad flat tire.Still Stuey was excited to be making his first foray into the Las Vegas’ newest and most spectacular hotel.

It was a different world than the one he had arrived in thirty years earlier, when the town was mostly run by the mob. But at the heart of it, no matter how it was dressed up or presented, no matter how corporate it might have become, or how much like a theme park, the blood that pulsed through the veins of Vegas was still gambling blood.Stuey walked into the poker room, where he met up with Mike Sexton. The two of them briefly discussed what game Stuey should play. Sexton knew how badly Stuey needed to hang onto the money that Baxter had given him for a little while if he was going to have any chance of getting back on his feet. “Don’t blow it all in one big game,” Sexton cautioned him. “Start off playing $200-$400 limit.”Even in the shape he was in, Stuey’s ego prevented him from thinking that small. He wanted to play in the biggest game around.“What about no limit?” Sexton offered. “That’s your strongest game. What if we got a no-limit game going?”Stuey agreed that made sense.“This was before no-limit was played widely in cash games the way it is today,” Sexton recalled. “It was still unusual to get a no-limit cash game going. Plus, as Stuey pointed out, who was going to want to play no-limit with him?”Erik Seidel, the former stockbroker turned poker pro and the runner-up to Johnny Chan in the 1998 WSOP, was sitting across the room, playing in what he termed a “very good Omaha game.” He got up and walked over to say hello to Stuey.

In the course of talking, Stuey mentioned that he was interested in playing no-limit, and Seidel said he’d consider playing a $5,000 head’s-up freezeout.“There’s nobody in the world I wouldn’t play head’s-up against,” Stuey said “But your one of the few that would give me a tough time. I’ll tell you what, I’ll give you a hundred bucks to play me.”It was pure, classic Stuey bravado. Seidel laughed, thinking that even though Stuey had lost some of the spark he’d once had, there was a hopeful feeling seeing him there that day. “Like maybe he could give up the drugs. Like maybe he really was back and this could be another chance.”In the end, Seidel decided he didn’t want to get up from the game he was in just yet. But as soon as he walked off, Stuey and sexton looked around and saw Melissa Hayden, one of the strongest women poker players in the world at that time. Sexton said, “You want to play a freezeout?” and Hayden said, “Sure.”Sexton laughed and said to Stuey, “See, you’ve been out of action so long you got girls that want to play against you.”The cardroom manager found Stuey and Hayden an empty table and set them up with a dealer and chips. Melissa wanted to start off with a $2000 freezeout, but Stuey insisted it be $5000, and she finally agreed.

They sat down in the expensive swiveling upholstered seats and watched the dealer fan a deck across the felt face up. Stuey reveled in the moment: the nonstop musical chatter of the chips being shuf-fled, bet and dragged, was as soothing to him as the sound of an ocean wave, a burbling brook. He was back in action.The game started with $25 and $50 blinds. Hayden, a tall, attractive red head, who had been a professional photographer back in New York before moving to Las Vegas to concentrate on poker, recalled that “Everyone who knew Stuey was concerned about him. There was a feeling of wanting to protect him.”That noble sentiment didn’t stop Hayden from trying to beat Stuey’s brains in. In fact, forty-five minutes after they began, Hayden had won every chip on the table. Someone from the high-limit table next to them, said, “Aw, Stuey, letting a girl beat you.”“When the guy said that,” Hayden recalled, “Stuey leaned over and whispered to me, ‘Don’t let them get to you. Don’t ever let them get to you. That guy’s a piece of shit.’ and he was. He was a guy who was known to have beaten up his girlfriend.

I mean, you had to know Stuey to really appreciate what a gentleman he Intelligent Gambler 2♠was, and how much he loved women. He was extremely gallant in his way.”By this time, a couple of other players had wandered over, and a non-freezeout no-limit game began at the table with the same $25-$50 blinds. Erik Seidel got up from his Omaha game and joined in. The painful truth was that Stuey was the “live one” in the game. “Yeah, that game was pretty much built around him,” Seidel said.The members of the poker fraternity might’ve been rooting for Stuey to get his life back on track, but the sympathy stopped as soon as the cards were dealt.It was no easy lineup under any circumstances. Aside from Hayden and Seidel, the other players included Russian poker pro Ralph Perry, the young gun Daniel Negreanu, and Perry Green, the Alaskan fur trader who’d been runner-up to Stuey in the 198 World Series final.“It was strange that Perry Green was there,” observed Melissa Hayden. “He didn’t live in Las Vegas, and it was unusual to see him. It was a little eerie, to tell you the truth, almost like the completion of some kind of circle.”

Stuey was far from the top of his game. Hayden said he seemed “very edgy. His focus and attention weren’t good.” Playing impatiently and aggressively, he bluffed off most of the $25,000 in a few hours. Hayden said she didn’t think that he lost all of it. “I think he probably kept some of it to buy dope.”The game was still going when Stuey got up. As he was leaving the poker room, he saw Mike Sexton again, and the two chatted briefly. sexton was under the impression that Stuey had not lost everything, and he interpreted his departure as a positive sign, demonstrating that he had some discipline and patience, and that he would try to find a better spot the next day.

Stuey made his way out of the Bellagio’s north side exit. He walked past the already famous fountains, the 1,200 multi-colored jets of water that danced in computer choreographed rhythm high above the quarter-mile-long lake fronting the hotel along the Strip. Stuey stopped to watch for a minute, standing alongside the large crowd of vacationing families, tourists, and convention-goers who stared up in awe a the majestic geysers leaping 240 feet toward the heavens while the giant loudspeakers piped out the sounds of Sarah Brightman and Andre Borcelli singing “Time to Say Goodbye”.

Online poker phenomenon, Isildur1, it’s the new Team PokerStars Pro.

With multi-million dollar swings in the biggest games anywhere online, no single player has had more of an impact on the world of poker in recent times than Isildur1. This is the player who came from out of nowhere to compete against the stars of the game at the nosebleed stakes, and the player who’s been involved in most of the biggest ever pots played online. There have been massive upswings in the good weeks, and crushing downswings during the dark times. And all of this in the space of just a few months. But despite all the attention, the endless forum threads and the scores of column inches written online and in magazines, the truth about Isildur1’s real identity has somehow managed to remain a mystery. Is Isildur1 a seasoned pro out to prove they can cut it in the high stakes games online? How about a young hotshot with enough skills and guts to take on the best and come out on top? Or maybe it’s none of the above. Whoever this player really is, they are a member of Team PokerStars Pro and play online using the infamous screen name ‘Isildur1’.

Online poker phenomenon, Isildur1, has joined the world’s largest poker site as a Team PokerStars Pro. The enigmatic player, who has still yet to publicly reveal his identity, shot to fame in the poker world in 2009 when he took on and beat some of the biggest heads-up players in the game. But with a place on Team PokerStars Pro now confirmed, Isildur1’s real identity is set to be unveiled in the near future.

When asked what the deal means to him, Isildur1 said: “I chose to join PokerStars because it’s the biggest site and it will be an exciting challenge. It means a great deal to be playing in a team alongside players such as Daniel Negreanu, Dario Minieri and Johnny Lodden.

“My goals now are to improve my live game for some upcoming events, continue to focus on heads-up no-limit Hold’em, but also try to develop my pot-limit Omaha game.”

High stakes heads-up SuperStar Showdown matches
In a bid to prove that he is the best heads-up cash game player in the world, Isildur1 will be playing a series of high stakes heads-up matches at PokerStars.com. The specially developed SuperStar Showdown format consists of a single session of 2,500 hands at stakes no lower than $50/$100. His first match will take place at 6pm ET on December 19, with the opponent to be named in the coming days.

Daniel Negreanu thrilled
Team PokerStars Pro Daniel Negreanu was thrilled at the news of Isildur1 joining the team. Negreanu said: “It’s not every day that a player like Isildur1 comes along. If you look up the definition of the term ‘phenom’ you’ll see a picture of his face! When he is playing, the poker world takes notice. Hate to overuse the poker term ‘sick’ but Isildur’s no-limit Hold’em game is just that – sick! Few people step up to the plate against him, but the ones who have, universally have respect for his raw talent.”

La Gazzetta asegura que Iniesta será el próximo Balón de Oro

La Gazzetta dello Sport adelanta en su versión de papel que Iniesta será el próximo Balón de Oro 2010. Según la información publicada este domingo por el diario deportivo italiano, que responde a una filtración, los tres primeros puestos estarán ocupados por jugadores del Barcelona. Xavi sería segundo y Messi tercero. Sneijder, uno de los favoritos, quedaría fuera del podio de honor.

EDICIÓN DEL 5 DE DICIEMBRE DE ‘LA GAZZETTA SPORTIVA’

Este lunes la FIFA anunciará oficialmente los nombres de los tres candidatos a ser elegidos, el próximo 10 de enero, como el mejor jugador del mundo de este año. la información de La Gazzetta asegura que que la revista France Football, que hasta el año pasado otorgaba el trofeo en solitario, anunciará la noticia en su edición de mañana.

La información sostiene que en año de Mundial es normal que el galardón se lo den a alguno de los campeones. De esta forma ocurrió desde 1998 con Zidane, Ronaldo (2002), y Cannavaro (2006). El gol de la final ha decidido, supuestamente, la mayoría de los votos a favor de Iniesta.

Sneijder, fuera por culpa de Benítez
Sorprende la ausencia de Sneijder entre los tres mejores cuando era el favorito en gran parte de las casas de apuestas. El rotativo italiano considera que el holandes “paga un alto precio por la desastrosa gestión de Rafa Benítez” como entrenador del Inter.

Banned Pokerstars commercial

Overbetting

Algunos recordaran en los inicios de NTiT mi aficion al excelente blog de Anja Ander, que para cualquiera interesado en aprender sobre la teoria del juego y el mundo de las apuestas deportivas es como un faro en el mar de malos consejos de los foros y paginas sobre apuestas. Desafortunadamente ese blog ya hace tiempo que esta inactivo, pero su contenido es todavia material de referencia obligado, por lo que NTiT publicara en los proximos dias algunos de los mejores posts que Ander produjo, empezemos con:

Overbetting es un término muy usado en el póquer. Cuando un jugador tiene un proyecto de color o de escalera o lo juega de forma pasiva puede hacercalls mientras tenga una expectativa de ganar suficiente para que el tamaño del bote compense las fichas que arriesga. También puede añadir al tamaño del bote, el crecimiento que espera del bote en el futuro en el caso de que consiga completar la jugada. Esto son las odds implícitas, que le puede dar a su mano suficiente potencial para pagar por descubrir una nueva carta. Si el tamaño del bote y las odds implícitas no son suficientemente grandes debe abandonar la mano.

Por ejemplo, si un jugador tiene proyecto de color al as en el turn (20% de probabilidad de ligar color en el river), el bote es de 1000 y otro jugador dobla el bote, habiendo foldeado el resto de jugadores, en principio (despreciando las odds implícitas) no debería de hacer call ya que estaría pagando 1000 para ganar 2000 con una probabilidad del 20%. O lo que es lo mismo, una mala apuesta. En cambio, si en la misma situación, un tercer jugador hace call la situación no sería tan clara ya que sería pagar 1000 para ganar 3000 y el bote podría crecer considerablemente más en el river con tantos jugadores inmersos en la acción.

En las apuestas también existe el overbetting y esto significa apostar por encima de sus posibilidades reales de obtener rendimiento positivo a largo plazo. En las entradas anteriores dedicadas al Money Management he estado dando vueltas alrededor de este concepto, pero creo que ha llegado el momento de puntualizarlo con claridad. 

Intuitivamente, pensamos que si una apuesta tiene value cuanto más apostemos, más ganaremos a largo plazo. Sin embargo esto no es así, ya que el value no es el único factor que hay que tener en cuenta a la hora de proporcionar un stake; la probabilidad de acierto es un factor tan importante como el value.

Cuando descubrimos una apuesta que creemos que tiene value existe unrango de stake en el que la tendencia a largo plazo es obtener ganancia. Ese rango comienza en el cero, llega a un punto óptimo (M) y cae hasta un punto de rendimiento nulo límite (L). A partir de ahí, con cualquier cantidad que apostemos por encima de ese valor estaríamos haciendo overbetting y nuestra expectativa a largo plazo es de perder dinero, aunque a corto plazo pueda parecer precisamente lo contrario.

En el ejemplo de la moneda, que a algunos parece no gustar, pero que es claro y ofrece resultados de números redondos y un aspecto visual agradable, el rango aceptable de apuestas es entre un 0% y un 50% del stake. Elrendimiento máximo (M) se consigue con una apuesta del 25% de nuestra cartera, con la que obtenemos un rendimiento del +12,5% cada 2 apuestas, o lo que es lo mismo, nuestra expectativa es doblar el capital en 10 apuestas si realizamos reinversión. El punto límite de ganancias (L) se encuentra en el50% del bank. Por encima de ese valor de apuesta, la tendencia en el largo plazo es perder dinero. También es interesante observar en la gráfica que la curva es de tipo parabólico y que el rendimiento decrece con más rapidez cuanto más nos alejemos del punto óptimo.

Por tanto, podemos concluir que una casa de apuestas lo tiene muy fácil. Puede ganar de dos formas:

• sus clientes hacen apuestas malas de expectativa negativa
• sus clientes hacen apuestas buenas, pero con un stake mayor del aconsejado (overbetting), que les lleva a perder dinero a largo plazo de forma inevitable.

fuente: http://anjaander.blogspot.com

The Loose Cannon folds Aces in Pokerstars The Big Game

O_O

Playboy Club Cancun opening in Mexico draws international attention

Playboy Enterprises, Inc. (NYSE: PLA, PLAA) today announced the opening of Playboy Club Cancun, a boutique gaming and entertainment venue that features a restaurant, nightclub, casino, sports gaming, and sports lounge.  The new property is located in the renowned hotel zone district of Cancun, Mexico, and will celebrate its opening on Saturday, December 4, with an invitation-only VIP party for Playboy Club members and a red-carpet celebrity event.

“I am pleased to bring the Playboy Club to Mexico for the first time and to combine the sexy sophistication of the Playboy brand with the international allure of Cancun,” said Hugh M. Hefner, Founder and Chief Creative Officer, Playboy Enterprises, Inc.  ”With the opening of Playboy Club Cancun and the arrival of the Playboy Bunnies, nightlife there will never be the same!”

The 12,000 square foot property, designed by Archon Design, incorporates influences from the original Playboy Club inChicago with the jet-setting ambience of tropical Mexico.  The venue’s intricate custom design details include an authentic Mexican hand-punched metallic wall featuring the iconic Playboy Rabbit Head Design; select pieces from Playboy’s multi-million dollar art collection; and a specially commissioned illustration of the Cancun Playboy Bunny by famed pinup artist Don Lewis.  The new property integrates gaming with contemporary nightlife, and will showcase an international mix of DJs and musical entertainment.  Playboy Club Cancun also boasts a restaurant with a tapas menu offering flavors from around the world.

Playboy Club Cancun will feature the world famous Playboy Bunnies, who will be making their debut in Mexico.  Bunnies at the Playboy Club Cancun will work as hostesses, cocktail servers, and Bunny dealers and hail from countries including Argentina,Cuba, Canada, Russia and Mexico.

“With the opening of this striking new venue, both Cancun residents and international visitors alike will now be able to experience the energy and excitement that the Playboy brand generates,” said Scott Flanders, CEO, Playboy Enterprises, Inc.  “By working with this caliber of strong local partners we have at Playboy Club Cancun, we will continue to grow our successful licensing and location based entertainment businesses around the world.  We look forward to bringing the Playboy brand to life at additional Playboy venues in select global markets.”

Playboy Club Cancun will be owned and operated under license by Entretenimiento De Mexico S.A. De C.V., a leading Mexican casino company that operates and licenses over 18 gaming venues throughout the country under the Palmas group. The company and its subsidiaries serve over 2,500,000 players a year and also own and operate two restaurants. Entretenimiento De Mexico S.A. De C.V was established in 2005 and is headquartered in Monterrey, Mexico.

Hugh M. Hefner opened the first Playboy Club in Chicago in 1960 and the venues quickly became the embodiment of urban sophistication around the world.  In their more than two decades of operation, Playboy Clubs sold nearly 2.5 million membership keys and became one of the most successful nightclub chains in history.  The Playboy Clubs, together with the hotel, casino and resort facilities, eventually included 40 properties in 25 states and seven countries.

Playboy Club Cancun joins Playboy Club Las Vegas at The Palms Casino Resort, Playboy Club Macao, and future properties in development in Miami and London.

About Playboy Enterprises, Inc.

Playboy is one of the most recognized and popular consumer brands in the world. Playboy Enterprises, Inc. is a media and lifestyle company that markets the brand through a wide range of media properties and licensing initiatives. The company publishes Playboy magazine in the United States and abroad and creates content for distribution via television networks, websites, mobile platforms and radio. Through licensing agreements, the Playboy brand appears on a wide range of consumer products in more than 150 countries as well as retail stores and entertainment venues.

The Cosmopolitan Resort ofers a few twists of the on the Vegas formula

The 2,995-room resort next to CityCenter is chameleon-like, offering non-gambling areas separate from the gaming crowd, rooms with balconies, digitally up-to-date surroundings, upscale shopping such as Chanel and Cartier, eight restaurants, artists-in-residence and a few other twists on the Vegas formula.

If you take stock of the Vegas landscape, it’s no wonder several Las Vegas clubs are hosting “good riddance to 2010″New Year’s Eve parties.

The construction cranes atop the flashy but bankrupt Fontainebleau resort, between the Sahara and the Riviera, haven’t moved in months. Opposite the Riviera, plywood-covered fences try to hide the foundations for Echelon, a CityCenter wannabe whose owners have pulled the plug, at least temporarily. And at CityCenter, the multi-billion-dollar hotel/retail behemoth that debuted a year ago, the problem-plagued Harmon Hotel will not open this month as expected. Indeed, the owners have even discussed tearing it down.

Yet as Vegas seeks to close the book on 2010, the 2,995-room Cosmopolitan resort, sandwiched between CityCenter and the Bellagio, is to open its doors Dec. 15, raising this question: Are the owners suicidal or exceedingly savvy?

Because the hotel field is so crowded — Vegas boasts 151,397 rooms — the stakes are high for the new kid in Sin City, and the financiers — a group of German bankers — understand that success of their $3.9-billion property hinges on making the Cosmopolitan stand out.

John Unwin, the hotel’s chief executive, describes the goal as “polish without pretense.”

“It’s polished in that it’s in the premium, luxury segment,” Unwin said. “It’s as nice as anything that you’ll see in Las Vegas.”

In this neighborhood, nice is a given, but this is different too.

Inside the two tower buildings, one 50 stories and the other 52, visitors will find themselves in one of a dozen settings or environments, depending on what’s being displayed on the eight video columns that stretch from floor to ceiling. You might see an autumnal forest where leaves have drifted to the ground or find yourself amid a cascade of bubbles. In another video-created setting, a pair of dancers moves from pillar to pillar, eventually reaching the screens behind the front desk, and you may feel as though you’re wheeling your luggage through a ballroom.

In a break from what’s become a Vegas tradition, the elevators to the rooms are just a few feet away from reception, negating the need to schlep suitcases through a cavernous casino. In fact, hotel guests who choose not to gamble can attend a convention or eat at the buffet without ever seeing a slot machine or 21 table.

Those who do venture onto the gaming floor will find a three-story bar tucked inside a giant crystal chandelier, plus floor-to-ceiling windows overlooking the Strip that eliminate the feeling of being trapped inside a vacuum devoid of time.

“I think we want to give people credit for their intelligence,” Unwin said. “I think people will enjoy knowing what time of day it is. And people are going to do what they want to do when they want to do it, not because we tricked them into it.”

Another departure: About three-quarters of the guest rooms have a furnished balcony.

“You open your sliding glass door — normally you can’t open your window — and you step out onto a terrace that’s 6 feet deep and as wide as your room,” Unwin said.

The “city” rooms, at 460 square feet, are the only ones without balconies. Upgrading to a studio adds 270 square feet, including the outdoor space. Premium rooms offer a Strip view. Wall-mounted, flat-screen TVs and the latest digital technology are standard. Credit for the livable yet hip feel of the rooms goes to designer David Rockwell, who even thought to include some surprisingly quirky wallpaper in the closets.

The Cosmopolitan also offers a retail component where prices at the 11 stores start at $40 and stop about $400, significant for a neighborhood where shoppers can find three Cartier, four Dior and five Chanel stores. At the CRSVR Sneaker Boutique, high-end rubber soles from Nike and Supra, including limited-edition styles not sold elsewhere, make up much of the inventory. Shoes, said Eric Aguirre (better known to night clubbers as DJ Vice), make the outfit.

“I’ve always felt that you can wear a plain white T-shirt and just a pair of Levi’s, but when you have the right shoes, the shoes are what bring the whole package together,” said Aguirre, a partner in the business, which opened its first shop a couple of years ago in Santa Barbara.

Club music, often mixed by live deejays, will be the backdrop to the shopping experience.

“We’re going to create the perfect DJ booth where all the deejays that come to Vegas … [are] going to want to jump on and … maybe try out some music they never get to play,” he said.

One floor up, on level three is what’s being called the “restaurant neighborhood.” A choice of eight eateries awaits, including a hidden, Manhattan-style pizzeria and an upscale Greek restaurant, Estiatorio Milos.

In the same “neighborhood,” rotating artists-in-residence will showcase their works while demonstrating their skills. In this contemporary, almost funky gallery, artists will use mediums as diverse as canvas and fingernails to display their work. Many of the artists are being placed by the Art Production Fund, a nonprofit that promotes art in public places.

The obligatory pool deck and a nightclub top off the Cosmopolitan, but again with a twist. Cabanas, each with a rooftop whirlpool affording views of the Strip, surround the pool. Marquee, the club, is a bi-level space with four rooms, including a library featuring vintage books about Sin City.

“We make it feel like a Tribeca apartment in New York City, where you have a fireplace, a dining room, [and] a proper billiard table,” said developer Jason Strauss.

Who will stay here? ” ‘The curious class’ are those customers that we’re after,” Unwin said. “They like interesting hotel experiences. They like to eat foreign food. They think of themselves as broad-minded and creative. So what’s on offer here appeals to them.”

The Cosmopolitan, 3708 Las Vegas Blvd. S.; (702) 698-7000,http://www.cosmopolitanlasvegas.com. Opening night rates start at $300 but drop to as low as $135 a night midweek in January.

The Perfect Chair for Poker Players

This Exercise Office Chair Looks Like Torture

The Gymygym chair combines the ergonomics of a Herman Miller with the benefit of 16 resistance band, core exercises. It’s supposed to help people get a decent workout while sitting at their office chair.

Come on, it looks a little bit like a torture chair, right? The chair will retail for $600 and comes in three different colors. Here’s how to work out with one of these chairs:

La firma Playboy abrirá un casino en Cancún

La empresa Playboy abrirá el próximo fin de semana en el balneario de Cancún, Caribe mexicano, un casino con un área de 1.200 metros cuadrados, en un proyecto en el que se han invertido 7,5 millones de dólares, informaron fuentes de la firma.

Las fuentes detallaron en un comunicado que el casino, que será inaugurado el sábado con una fiesta privada y abierto al público el domingo, cuenta con mesas y máquinas de entretenimiento para jugar ruleta, póker, póker caribeño y black jack.

Para los fanáticos de los deportes hay un área de pantallas con transmisiones para disfrutar de fútbol americano, fútbol, béisbol y baloncesto, así como de los grandes eventos internacionales de copas y torneos.

Playboy Cancún eligió a 25 chicas entre 1.500 aspirantes a ‘Conejitas’, quienes se desempeñarán como trabajadoras del casino.

El casino fue decorado por Archon Design que combinó “con gusto detalles emblemáticos de Playboy y aspectos novedosos. A la entrada está una réplica de la chimenea que hay en la Mansión Playboy, sobre la cual se ha colocado una pintura del fundador Hugh Hefner”, dijo la fuente.

Como parte de su política de empresa socialmente responsable, dijo Playboy Cancún, la firma apoyará a ONG locales, empezando por la Cruz Roja. En la primera etapa de este casino se generaron 255 empleos directos y 650 indirectos para la construcción de las instalaciones.

***supuestamente el casino tendra mesas de poker con dealers xD

 

It’s Pokerstars rigged?

Busting the online poker myth – PokerStars authenticity test

The Myth
Is online poker rigged? Are the cards dealt randomly? Do they favor bad play? These questions have been around since the beginning of online poker. Every poker related forum has a post where people are complaining about their unbelievable run of bad luck. Some of these people conclude, with much confidence, that what happened to them can not be just bad luck and that the poker site is messing around with probabilities and hand outcomes.

This conclusion that people make isn’t that ridiculous and is usually backed up with some assertions. Here is the most popular one: poker sites need fish (loosing players) to keep playing. They also need new fish to enter the system. If the loosing players stop playing and if the site can’t find new fish, the game will soon dry. So in order to make the fish keep playing longer, poker sites distort the random elements in games in favor of the unlikely. This way, bad players will enjoy playing poker for longer and will be more likely to deposit more money to the system when they go broke.

I never agreed with this. To me it doesn’t make sense for poker sites to artificially alter the game play. Because they are already making so much money and poker is getting more and more popular everyday. They just don’t need to take the risk. However, I wanted to be sure. So I took the challenge to bust this myth.

Here is what I did:

The Test
I purchased about 1,5 million no limit hold ‘em hand histories (1,509,749 exactly) played on Poker Stars. (There are sites that sell hand histories). Inside the hand histories, there is all the data available to an observer of the hand. Every detail of the hand is there except the player cards. You can only see what cards a player was holding if the hand went to showdown.

Then I started coding a program to extract the useful information in these hands. Using this program I was able to discover every hand where one player went all-in before the final card(river) was revealed and exactly one player called. The reason why I was specifically looking to find this type of hands is because I could calculate the winning chance of each player, and see if the favorite hand at the time of all-in won the hand after the final board card was revealed.

For every hand I discovered I saved the following information to a database:

Winning player Cards	Loosing player cards	Board	Where all-in occured	Favorites winning odds	Tie chance	Favorite won
KhTs	TdAc	7cKdJcAdQh	Turn	86%	9%	No

After going through 1,5 million hands, the program discovered 78,911 hands where one of the players went all-in pre-flop, on the flop or on the turn and exactly one player called. I wanted two player pots specifically because on a pot with three or more players the best hand usually doesn’t even have %50 chance to win. So its difficult to tell the favorite in pots with more than two players.

Anyway, the next thing I did is to calculate the average winning chance of the favorites in these  78,911 hands. Excluding the hands where there is no real favorite.(i.e. where the hand will most likely be a tie. Total of 2239 hands were excluded.) This is the first calculation required in order to determine how random the poker site is.

The result: 0.750325115592107. About 75%. This is the average chance of the favorites in all hands to win the pot

The second calculation we need is counting the number of hands where the favorite player actually won the hand. This gives the result: 57,423.

The total number of hands, after the exlusion is 76672. (We exclude hands like AK vs AK off suit preflop). Now, ideally out of this 76672 hands, the favorite must have won about 75% of the hands. 75,0325115592107% exactly.

We expect the number of hands where the favorite won to be:
76,672 x 0.750325115592107 = 57,529 rounded.

The favorite hand won 57,423 times, while ideal expectation was 57,529. The difference is about -0.2% This is such a small percentage and I would expect it to diminish in a larger sample space.

My conclusion:
Poker Stars is not rigged, it does not favor bad play, it does not distort the element of randomness.

Period.

About the sample data
1,509,749 hands which were played in 0.10-0.25, 0.25-0.50, 0.50-1, 1-2, 2-4 blinds. Distribution of blinds:

• $0.10/$0.25: 15,86%
• $0.25/$0.50: 25,04
• %$0.50/$1.00: 15,46%
• $1/$2: %28,89
• $2/$4: 14,75%

Some technical sugar

• I did the parsing in Java. Use of java.util.regex library. I could have done it in Perl or python I know.
• The hand evaluator I used is poker-eval webservice of pokersource running on my local.
• I used MySQL database. I may export the table to a .csv file and upload it somehwere if there is demand.

source: http://intellectrush.blogspot.com